Innovating Clinical Trials
Welcome to Innovating Clinical Trials, the podcast designed for clinical research professionals eager to deepen their understanding of clinical trials through concise, insightful segments. Join your hosts, Liam Eves and Ted Trafford, as they uncover the core issues in clinical research, reflect on the industry, and challenge conventional wisdom.
Ted Trafford - https://probitymedical.com/
With 30 years of experience in clinical research, Ted serves as the Director of Business Development, driving business growth and leading Feasibility and Site Relationship teams at Probity Medical Research, a clinical trial site administrative support company with a consortium of 75+ sites across four countries. As a writer and speaker, Ted contributes to thought leadership and strategic initiatives in the clinical trials industry, leveraging his extensive experience and creative approach to drive meaningful discussion and progress for Sponsors, CROs, Sites and Technology Vendors.
Liam Eves - https://www.theendpointpodcast.com/
Liam's held executive roles in SMOs and CROs, and led all major functions of trial delivery. His journey into the field began unexpectedly after an injury ended his career as a professional footballer. Over the years Liam has optimized trial delivery methods / systems for effective enrollment and trial delivery. Currently, he focuses on building and advising companies in the clinical trial space.
Opinions expressed are those of the participants and not their employers.
Innovating Clinical Trials
Ep 2.29: Lasagna's Law and Building Recruitment Forecasts You Can Actually Trust
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Every trial starts with a number on a slide, patients needed, months allotted, a clean straight line on a chart.
Liam and Ted pull that line apart in this episode, starting with Lasagna's Law: the 1970s observation that eligible patients seem to vanish the moment a trial opens and reappear the moment it closes. They dig into why recruitment forecasts go wrong not because the math is bad, but because the assumptions underneath the math are never tested, tracked, or even written down.
Liam reframes recruitment forecasting using a sat-nav analogy: the plan is your estimated arrival time, the forecast is what updates as you actually drive. Ted brings a wildlife photographer's lens, literally, arguing most sponsors are zoomed in on the wrong details and missing the bigger picture entirely.
A grounded, practical conversation for anyone responsible for building a forecast around best-case, worst-case, and base-case scenarios instead of one optimistic line.